Solid and bright: likely to hold
A first-hour high or low with strong odds is drawn solid, with its chance beside it. Most sessions never trade past a line like that.
BTC · US session · Pro Quant
Initial Balance
The first hour sets the session's high and low. We publish the odds that each one survives to the close.
The minute the first hour of the US session ends, the Terminal chart draws its high and its low, each with the chance that it stands as the session's extreme. You read the afternoon with the odds in front of you: which side has room, and which probably does not.
- Odds for both sides, the minute the first hour closes
- On each side, the level price is most likely to reach before the close
- Faint and dashed where a side is likely to give way
- Scored against every session since Jan 2018
- 3,201 sessions scored
- since Jan 2018
- Recomputed every hour
A recent session
- First-hour high
- 84% held
- → prior close 50%: not reached
- First-hour low
- 5% broke
- → lvl −2 54%: reached
Top 3% of 250 recent weekday sessions
The record
Called to hold 86% held, across 145 calls at 80% or
more (quoted 87% on average)
Called to give way 87% broke, across 2,579 calls at 20% or
less (quoted 89% to break)
Sharper than the base rate 17% less forecast error than quoting the long-run hold rate
(31%) every session
Levels reached 61% of 6,402 published levels, quoted
66% on average
3,168 sessions since Jan 2018 are replays, each computed with only what was known when its first hour closed; 33 were published live, from Tue 15 Sep 2026.
Sessions, drawn
Recent weekday sessions, taken at fixed ranks from the better half of the last 250 and each captioned with where it ranks. The shaded strip is the first hour; the odds are what was published when it closed; a ring marks where a side gave way.
- first-hour high
- first-hour low
- faint or dashed: likely to give way
- level a side is likely to reach, with its chance
- where a side broke
- First-hour high
- 84% held
- → prior close 50%: not reached
- First-hour low
- 5% broke
- → lvl −2 54%: reached
Top 3% of 250 recent weekday sessions
- First-hour high
- 29% broke
- → IB hi 71%: reached
- First-hour low
- 5% broke
- → ext 1× 62%: not reached
Top 10% of 250 recent weekday sessions
- First-hour high
- 6% broke
- → lvl +2 54%: not reached
- First-hour low
- 35% broke
- → IB lo 65%: reached
Better than 80% of 250 recent weekday sessions
- First-hour high
- 41% broke
- → IB hi 59%: reached
- First-hour low
- 3% broke
- → lvl −1 51%: reached
Better than 70% of 250 recent weekday sessions
- First-hour high
- 45% broke
- → IB hi 55%: reached
- First-hour low
- 11% broke
- → lvl −1 81%: reached
Better than 60% of 250 recent weekday sessions
- First-hour high
- 6% broke
- → prior close 71%: reached
- First-hour low
- 51% broke
- → day zone lo 69%: reached
Better than 50% of 250 recent weekday sessions
Level names on the charts: IB hi / IB lo the first hour's own high and low · ext 1× / 2× the first-hour range, projected · prior the previous session · zone where trade concentrated · lvl ±n the nearest structural levels.
Today's odds go up the minute the first hour closes.
Both sides, the likely-reach levels, and the record behind them — on the same Terminal chart you have been reading about.
Published odds against what happened
Every published chance, grouped by size, against how often that side of the first hour actually held to the close. Each session contributes two calls, one per side.
| Published chance | Quoted on average | Actually held | Gap | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–20% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 2 pts more often | 2,577 |
| 20–40% | 29.0% | 32.6% | 4 pts more often | 2,218 |
| 40–60% | 48.4% | 51.8% | 3 pts more often | 1,035 |
| 60–80% | 69.2% | 67.4% | 2 pts less often | 427 |
| 80–100% | 86.7% | 86.2% | within 1 pt | 145 |
The bar is how often the side held; the mark on it is what was quoted. A forecast worth trading on keeps the two together all the way up the table.
Year by year
Sharper than the base rate in every year on record, through bull markets, bear markets and everything between.
| Year | Sessions | First-hour extreme held | Sharper than the base rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 363 | 27.4% | 12.4% |
| 2019 | 365 | 29.5% | 15.5% |
| 2020 | 364 | 34.1% | 13.7% |
| 2021 | 365 | 30.8% | 18.3% |
| 2022 | 365 | 33.4% | 18.9% |
| 2023 | 364 | 30.4% | 15.2% |
| 2024 | 366 | 30.9% | 21.8% |
| 2025 | 365 | 31.8% | 17.9% |
| 2026 | 284 | 35.2% | 19.1% |
How to read it on the chart
Faint and dashed: likely to give way
Weak odds draw the line faint and dashed. That side of the first hour is the one the session is expected to trade beyond.
Beyond it: where price tends to go
From the end of the first hour, a dashed line on each side marks the level price is most likely to reach before the close, with its chance of getting there.
Read the afternoon with the odds already drawn.
Initial Balance is part of Pro Quant, on the same Terminal chart as the levels and the range forecast — every figure recomputed hourly, every session kept on the record you just read.